John Paul Gosling

About

Welcome to my homepage. I am a Professor of Statistics in the Department of Mathematical Sciences at Durham University. My research focuses on developing and applying Bayesian statistical methodology to real-world problems, with particular emphasis on uncertainty quantification, expert elicitation, and the statistical analysis of computer models.

I am one of the developers of SHELF (the SHeffield ELicitation Framework), a toolkit for eliciting probability distributions from subject-matter experts. Before joining Durham, I held positions at the University of Leeds and completed my PhD at the University of Sheffield.

Research Interests

• Bayesian statistics and computation
• Uncertainty quantification
• Statistical emulation of computer models
• Expert elicitation and the SHELF framework
• Environmental and ecological statistics
• Risk and decision analysis

Selected Publications

• SHELF: The SHeffield ELicitation Framework
  J. P. Gosling. In Dias, L. C., Morton, A., Quigley, J. (eds) Elicitation: The Science and Art of Structuring Judgement. Springer, 2018, pp. 61–93.
• Nonparametric elicitation for heavy-tailed prior distributions
  J. P. Gosling, J. E. Oakley, A. O'Hagan. Bayesian Analysis, 2(4), 693–718, 2007.
• A Bayes linear approach to weight-of-evidence risk assessment for skin allergy
  J. P. Gosling, A. Hart, D. Owen, M. Davies, T. Z. Husain, J. Pratt. Bayesian Analysis, 8(1), 169–186, 2013.

A full list of publications is available on Google Scholar and on my Durham staff profile.

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